The unemployed

As we mentioned in our previous post there is a solid amount of scholarship on the connection between the economy and the incumbents chances of being reelected. One of the easiest ways of measuring the economic well being of an area is through the unemployment numbers.

2008 Presidential Election results by county

Washington State unemployment by county

                                                             


Our picture to the left indicates the various levels of unemployment throughout Washington, in 2009, on a county by county level. The state is currently setting at 8.7% unemployment which beats the national average by just a little bit. Pay particular attention to the counties on the western portion of the state; these include the counties of King, Jefferson, Pierce, etc. These are the counties that Obama won in the 2008 election. In general these counties seem to be at or around the average.

The areas where Obama was victorious are going to be crucial for the reelection chances of Senator Murray. Senator Murray needs to maintain majorities in these counties if she hopes to continue to represent Washington in the Senate. Her largest obstacle remains to be the bad economy as well as the high unemployment rate.

On the flip side Mr. Rossi is going to be targeting these counties hard. Conventional wisdom argues that Mr. Rossi will not need to spend a lot of time in the eastern part of the state where John McCain carried the majority of counties. Mr. Rossi only needs to maintain those majorities and  siphon away the disgruntled voters on the western portion of the state.

These maps help to tell two stories about this Senate race. Firstly, they are a friendly reminder that the economic woes of a state can dictate its politics. Traditionally what would have been an almost sure win for Senator Murray and her party is now one of the most competitive races in the nation. Second, the maps tell us where the campaigns are going to be spending most of their hard earned dollars for votes.