And the Winner Is....

The polls will be opening early tomorrow. And throughout the day many citizens (many more will not) will cast a ballot voicing support or opposition to a plethora of candidates, constitutional amendments, and other ballot initiatives.

The Washington Senate will provide one of the major parties a crucial seat moving forward. But who will it be? Will it be the incumbent or the upstart challenger. Let's take a look and see if we cannot determine who the winner may be.

Looking at the last minuet polls that have come out it shows that Sen. Murray still has a slight lead. Although this is not a complete consensus. Public Policy Polling has Mr. Rossi ahead with 50% and Sen. Murray with 48%, the poll has a MOE of 2.2%. Fox News has Sen. Murray ahead 49% to Mr. Rossi's 47% with a MOE 3%. The University of Washington has Sen. Murray ahead 51% to Mr. Rossi's 45% with a MOE of 3.7%. Going into the final stretch the polls are not able to give us an accurate gauge. In all of the above polls the candidate who is out ahead is still within the margin of error. There is no real trend to follow overall either. Looking over a broad range of polls taken over a the past few months do not show much of a surge or decline for either candidate.

Image from TalkingPointsMemo.com

 The blog Talking Points Memo was kind enough to put into pictures several months worth of polling data. TPM poll average shows Sen. Murray with a slight lead ahead of her opponent. More important is to note that lack of over all growth or decline for either candidate. Since about August the support for either candidate has remained about the same.

With our last glimpse of what the polls show the voters in Washington to be feeling it is time to make a prediction. Based on the snap shot of the polls above, combined with very static support for both candidates over the past several months I am going to predict that Senator Patty Murray will be elected to another term in the US Senate.

The uncertainty in the polls leads me to use other criteria. Namely that Ms. Murray is the incumbent and the amount of money she has been able to raise and spend. As mentioned in many previous blog posts Ms. Murray has been able to out raise and outspend her opponent by quite a lot. Likewise, the support that the Senator has from many of the trade groups, unions, and local businesses in the area, based on PAC donations, Senator Murray is in the best possible shape she can be in to withstand the challenge she has received from Mr. Rossi. Ultimately, I feel it will be the lack of grassroots conservatives and Tea Party like groups that will prevent Mr. Rossi from riding the Republican tide. The Tea Party does not seem to have a strong enough presence in Washington for Mr. Rossi to be able to overcome Sen. Murray.

Good Night, and Good Luck.